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Fed policy, prior inflation cycle behavior and a potential wage/price spiral may position gold for a breakout 2022.
We believe the Fed's tools to fight inflation could become a substantial risk to the economy. Exposure to gold equities could prove beneficial and help weather the storm.
October was an unsettled month for the gold market as it tried to make sense of a variety of factors, including a tighter Fed, inflation, a CPI increase and increased retail sales.
Gold prices continue to consolidate while risks created by a Fed tightening cycle are all but ignored. Long-term post-pandemic structural changes may prove positive for gold in 2022.
Despite a wild ride, gold ended August almost unchanged. Consolidation continues, but once it has run its course, we believe tail-risk drivers may drive gold to $2,000 per ounce and beyond.