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  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s latest activity gauges were not great, raising concerns about the near-term growth outlook. Some remedial policies are already being implemented, but more support might be needed going forward.

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 30, 2021

    Playing the Waiting Game in China and Peru

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    As we wait for the next batch of China’s activity gauges, the Politburo expressed concern about the growth outlook and signals more fiscal support. Peru’s politics spooked the market—and some questions are still unresolved.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 29, 2021

    EM Policy Contagions - From Good to Controversial

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A tame Fed provided a much-needed market respite, and EM with strong policy frameworks are set to benefit. As this happens, be mindful of EM policy “contagions” of another kind, which can be less forgiving.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 28, 2021

    Growth, Rebalancing and Persistence

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The vaccination gap between EM and DM is the main reason why the IMF lowered its 2021 growth forecast for EM. The IMF also expressed concerns that inflation risks can prove more persistent.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 27, 2021

    China Contagion vs EM Policy Breakthroughs

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s sell off continued this morning, but the newsflow in other EM was more encouraging. Which one will prevail?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 26, 2021

    China’s Policies - Moving Targets?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China is trying to balance more support for smaller privately owned companies that are still struggling with more regulation in “bubbly” sectors.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 23, 2021

    EM Rate Hawks – First In, First Out?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Russia delivered a hefty 100bps rate hike, but signaled that it might take a pause. Brazil cannot afford such luxury yet, as mid-month inflation accelerated to 8.59% year-on-year.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 22, 2021

    Hawkish Surprises Keep Coming

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Mexico’s inflation keeps surprising to the upside, supporting the market expectation of more rate hikes in the next 3 months. Other EMs are still expected to normalize their policies, but not yet due to headwinds from low vaccination rates.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 21, 2021

    Peak Growth or Peak Concerns?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s financial stability concerns are back in headlines, but the near-term growth outlook remains unfazed.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 20, 2021

    Policy Response and Growth/Rates Dichotomy

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Lower global rates contrast with optimistic growth forecasts. EMs are expected to continue hiking, which should help to bring the average EM real policy rate back to positive territory in early 2022.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 19, 2021

    EM – Local Policies vs. Global Concerns

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    EM central banks will be making rate-setting decisions amongst diverging inflation/growth outlooks and another global risk-off episode.

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