October 15, 2021

China – An Inflection Point?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

Chinese authorities moved to reassure the market by easing some mortgage restrictions and urging developers to meet their debt obligations. EM central banks might have underestimated businesses' ability to adapt under COVID conditions.

October 14, 2021

IMF Meetings – Who’s Behind the Curve?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

We are hearing concerns at the IMF Meetings that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be falling behind the curve. Meanwhile, Chile delivered a larger than expected policy rate hike.

October 13, 2021

IMF Meetings – Identifying Key Risks

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

The IMF Meetings raise questions about inflation, growth and tail risks in EM and DM. However, stronger policy frameworks in many EMs put them on more solid ground vs. previous crises.

October 12, 2021

IMF - Growth Faultlines Still A Risk

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

The IMF remains concerned about the growth disparity between EM and DM, but it nevertheless made some sizable 2021 GDP upgrades in EMEA and LATAM in its latest World Economic Outlook.

October 11, 2021

EM Asia Policy Rates – How High They Can Go?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

The market now prices in at least one full rate hike in all major economies in emerging Asia in the next 12 months. Are these expectations too aggressive?

October 08, 2021

EM Macro Surprises – How Far to Reversal?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

The current trends in EM macro surprises are yet to reverse, but intra- and inter-regional divergences give central banks room to normalize their policies at a different pace.

October 07, 2021

Turnarounds – When Common Sense Prevails

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

The latest policy turnarounds in EM – especially Poland and Peru – keep bullish hopes alive.

October 06, 2021

EM Tightening – Momentum Gets Stronger

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

Poland’s surprising 40bps rate hike reassured the market, but various inflation and real policy rate metrics argue for continuing tightening.

October 05, 2021

EM Rate Hikes – Great Divide?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

Not all inflation pressures in EM are transitory, and central banks are increasingly opting for policy rate hikes – in a staggered manner.

October 04, 2021

EM Inflation – Peak Wave or Tsunami?

by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

EM central banks are to continue policy normalization this week. Higher energy prices generate a lot of headlines, but they might not have the same effect on all EMs.