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  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s recovery is well underway, but it is not yet fully “balanced”. What are the implications?

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 18, 2021

    LATAM – Populist Concerns Persist

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Brazil’s more hawkish monetary stance shielded the currency and local bonds’ total return this week, but the market continues to price in many rate hikes over the next 2 years due to persisting concerns about populism.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 17, 2021

    EM vs. Fed Hawks

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The Fed might have turned more hawkish, but the market acknowledged that “EM is not a monolith”.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 16, 2021

    China Growth – Clouds on the Horizon?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s domestic activity indicators were mixed – a good reason to stick to the “no-sharp policy turns” approach. Central Europe’s “hawk talk” is getting louder, and the market believes Hungary will be the first to hike.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 15, 2021

    Brazil Rate Hikes - 'I Want Some More'

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The market is clamoring for a more aggressive policy stance in Brazil. China keeps its policy cool, keeping the 1-year MLF rate on hold.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 14, 2021

    EM Rate Expectations – Realistic?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    We have several key rate-setting meetings in EM this week—how do the market expectations measure up?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 11, 2021

    EM Rates – A Study of Contrasts

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A higher average EM policy rate conceals important distinctions on a country-level, which might affect local bond performance going forward.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 10, 2021

    China - Shadow Financing in Crosshairs

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China continues to target shadow financing to lower the risk of asset bubbles. South Africa’s large current account surpluses provide strong fundamental support for the currency.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 08, 2021

    EM Growth – Vaccinations Set the Pace

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    EM regions with higher vaccination rates already see upward growth revisions. We should see more headwinds as the pace of vaccinations accelerates and catches up with DM.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 07, 2021

    Has LATAM Dodged the Populist Bullet?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Mexican assets gained on the mid-term election results, which make it more difficult to change the constitution. Peru is still in the waiting mode as the presidential election is too close to call.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 04, 2021

    “Everything Rally” - LATAM Too?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    This weekend’s elections in LATAM will test the “everything rally” narrative.

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