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  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s domestic activity indicators reinforced the “no sharp turns” narrative. Hungary surprised with a decidedly hawkish monetary policy comment.

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 14, 2021

    U.S. Surprises – EM-Friendly?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    U.S. growth – slowing or rebalancing? The outcome matters for EM. EM central banks’ guidance is getting more hawkish as economies re-open and the pace of vaccinations picks up.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 13, 2021

    Macro Surprises – Who Benefits?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The U.S. tapering narrative is attempting a comeback, but the real rates differentials between some EMs and the U.S. look much more attractive now.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 12, 2021

    Inflation Rollercoaster(s)

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Most central banks believe inflation spikes will fade later this year. China continues to withdraw policy stimulus, as the recovery becomes more entrenched.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 11, 2021

    Higher Inflation, Steeper Yield Curves?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A low base effect pushes EM headline inflation higher. Central banks consider it transitory – can global cost-push pressures be a game-changer, causing local yield curves to re-steepen?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 10, 2021

    Surging Commodity Prices – Friend or Foe?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Surging commodity prices can create a strong tailwind for EM FX. Pay attention to country specifics as regards the impact of higher food prices on EM inflation.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 07, 2021

    EM Exports – Rebalancing on the Way?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s exports beat consensus, but its global exports share is set to decline as other EM benefit from the re-opening. Mexico’s inflation jumped higher, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 06, 2021

    EM Rates – No Deviations From Status Quo

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Brazil maintained the same pace of rate hikes (75bps) and guidance. Turkey remained on hold with a seemingly hawkish statement – but is it just lip service?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 05, 2021

    EM – Beware of Base Effect Illusion

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A very low base effect can generate “oversized” data releases in EM in the next couple of months. India’s central bank surprised with additional measures to support growth.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 04, 2021

    EM Activity Gauges – Still Expanding

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Activity gauges in most EM stayed in expansion zone in April. Brazil’s tax reform shows signs of life – we hope the rapporteur’s presentation will not extinguish them.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 03, 2021

    LATAM – Old Risks Are Back

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    LATAM policy and political risks are back on the front burner. A prospect of an early rate cut in Turkey looks more real after below-consensus inflation.

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