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  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s recovery is well underway, but it is not yet fully “balanced”. What are the implications?

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 17, 2021

    EM vs. Fed Hawks

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The Fed might have turned more hawkish, but the market acknowledged that “EM is not a monolith”.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 16, 2021

    China Growth – Clouds on the Horizon?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s domestic activity indicators were mixed – a good reason to stick to the “no-sharp policy turns” approach. Central Europe’s “hawk talk” is getting louder, and the market believes Hungary will be the first to hike.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 15, 2021

    Brazil Rate Hikes - “I Want Some More”

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The market is clamoring for a more aggressive policy stance in Brazil. China keeps its policy cool, keeping the 1-year MLF rate on hold.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 14, 2021

    EM Rate Expectations – Realistic?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    We have several key rate-setting meetings in EM this week—how do the market expectations measure up?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 11, 2021

    EM Rates – A Study of Contrasts

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A higher average EM policy rate conceals important distinctions on a country-level, which might affect local bond performance going forward.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 10, 2021

    China - Shadow Financing in Crosshairs

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China continues to target shadow financing to lower the risk of asset bubbles. South Africa’s large current account surpluses provide strong fundamental support for the currency.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 08, 2021

    EM Growth – Vaccinations Set the Pace

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    EM regions with higher vaccination rates already see upward growth revisions. We should see more headwinds as the pace of vaccinations accelerates and catches up with DM.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 07, 2021

    Has LATAM Dodged the Populist Bullet?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Mexican assets gained on the mid-term election results, which make it more difficult to change the constitution. Peru is still in the waiting mode as the presidential election is too close to call.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 04, 2021

    “Everything Rally” - LATAM Too?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    This weekend’s elections in LATAM will test the “everything rally” narrative.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 03, 2021

    Turkey – Risk of Premature Rate Cut Is Up

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Turkey’s downside inflation surprise increases a risk of a premature policy rate cut. Russia’s decision to remove U.S. dollar assets from its National Wealth Fund is the continuation of a multi-year trend.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    June 02, 2021

    EM Growth Outlook – Don’t Worry?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The accelerating pace of vaccinations can be a powerful tailwind for EM growth. A risk of premature rate cuts in Turkey is back after President Erdogan’s remarks.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 28, 2021

    Emerging Markets - Moving Green

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Indonesia’s new coal plants announcement is a big environmental milestone. Local politics and the pace of vaccinations drive EM differentiation against a generally supportive global backdrop.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 27, 2021

    China Appreciation – Too Much Of A Good Thing?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China continues to emphasize that the exchange rate is a two-way trade. Can the EU sanctions on Belarus push global food prices even higher?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 26, 2021

    EM – Lower Real Rates, Louder “Hawk Talk”?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Very low real policy rates and higher COVID vaccinations are encouraging some EM central banks to adopt a more hawkish policy stance against the backdrop of rising inflation.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 25, 2021

    EM Rate Hikes – Expect More

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The market prices in more rate hikes in EM. Hungary is about to start its tightening cycle. Brazil is ready to deliver more hikes to bring inflation expectations under control.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 24, 2021

    LATAM’s Populist Slide - Unstoppable?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    LATAM’s “slide to populism” narrative refuses to go away – Peru’s presidential polls, the uncertain future of Colombia’s tax reform, and Mexico’s central bank changes are the reasons why.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 21, 2021

    China Bond Market – A Force to Be Reckoned With

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s bond market is now the second largest in the world. What are the implications?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 20, 2021

    China and EM “Commodity Connection”

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China continues to talk down commodity prices. S&P cuts Colombia sovereign rating to “junk”.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 19, 2021

    EM Inflation – Surprises Keep Coming

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The EM inflation surprise index keeps moving higher, raising questions about frontloaded policy normalization. We see room for differentiation – and it goes beyond commodity prices.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 18, 2021

    EM – Wall of Worry No More?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    There are valid concerns about the near-term EM outlook, but good news – especially about growth – continues to trickle in several countries. Brazil is to discuss a major privatization proposal in the lower house.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 17, 2021

    China – No Further Acceleration = No Sharp Turns

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s domestic activity indicators reinforced the “no sharp turns” narrative. Hungary surprised with a decidedly hawkish monetary policy comment.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 14, 2021

    U.S. Surprises – EM-Friendly?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    U.S. growth – slowing or rebalancing? The outcome matters for EM. EM central banks’ guidance is getting more hawkish as economies re-open and the pace of vaccinations picks up.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 13, 2021

    Macro Surprises – Who Benefits?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The U.S. tapering narrative is attempting a comeback, but the real rates differentials between some EMs and the U.S. look much more attractive now.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 12, 2021

    Inflation Rollercoaster(s)

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Most central banks believe inflation spikes will fade later this year. China continues to withdraw policy stimulus, as the recovery becomes more entrenched.

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