Commodities’ July Recovery Offsets June Losses
August 16, 2022
Read Time 2 MIN
Macro Outlook: Downgraded Economic Growth Expectations Reduced Commodity Demands
July was a mixed month for commodities after the sharp pull back in June. The decline, which continued in early July, revealed the downgrade of investors’ economic growth expectations. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to aggressively raising interest rates in order to control inflation reduced commodity demand forecasts.
Year to date returns for commodity index products, as well as roll yields, are still very positive due to the steep backwardation of the forward price curves, especially in the energy sector.
CMCI Roll Yield is Still Positive Despite Q2 Setbacks
Source: VanEck, Bloomberg. Data from 12/31/21 – 7/31/22. Roll yield refers to the profit or loss that can be generated when investing in the futures market due to the price difference between futures contracts with different expiration dates. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Index & Sector Review: Energy Driven by Rally in Natural Gas Prices
The energy sector led during the month of July, providing almost all of the positive performance due to a strong rally in natural gas prices. Heat waves in Europe and the U.S. caused drawdowns in natural gas inventory. Russia continued to manipulate the sector with the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline into Europe. They initially reduced the flow down to 40% of its normal supply and then closed the pipeline for normal maintenance, leading to fears that it would remain closed. They then opened it back up to 40%, only to turn it down to 20% a few days later. Russia has clearly started to use energy as a weapon against the NATO alliance.
The livestock sector was also strong in late July. The heat wave from late June into early July in the lower Midwest U.S. killed cattle, quickly reducing supply. However, both cattle and hogs rallied into the month end.
The industrial metals sector was unchanged for the month after a sharp decline in June as the Chinese economy continued to underperform.
The agriculture sector prices declined for most of July, finishing down for the month due to improved growing conditions in the upper Midwest U.S. Precious metals also declined as U.S. real interest rates rose and the U.S. dollar made new highs for the year in July.
The UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCI) underperformed the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) by approximately 4% in July. The underperformance was almost entirely due to BCOM’s larger natural gas exposure relative to CMCI. CMCI made its low for the correction in mid-July and recovered into month end, finishing flat for the month.
Target Weights and Index Rebalancing
The annual rebalancing of CMCI for the 2022-2023 period was announced on July 26th. There were no commodities added or removed from the index; only slight adjustments in the Precious Metals and Energy sectors.
Index Sector Weightings
Source: MerQube. As of July 26, 2022.
Learn more about the VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund, which seeks to track, before fees and expenses, the CMCI.
Please note that VanEck may oﬀer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an oﬀer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities/ﬁnancial instruments mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, ﬁnancial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reﬂect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently veriﬁed for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck.
All indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
BCOM provides broad-based exposure to commodities, and no single commodity or commodity sector dominates the index. Rather than being driven by micro-economic events affecting one commodity market or sector, the diversified commodity exposure of BCOM potentially reduces volatility in comparison with non-diversified commodity investments.
UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a Total Return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across 27 commodity components from within five sectors, specifically energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural and livestock.
UBS and Bloomberg own or exclusively license, solely or jointly as agreed between them, all proprietary rights with respect to the Index. In no way do UBS or Bloomberg sponsor or endorse, nor are they otherwise involved in the issuance and offering of the Fund, nor do either of them make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the holders of the Fund or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in the Fund or commodities generally or in futures particularly, or as to results to be obtained from the use of the Index or from the Fund.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. Commodities are assets that have tangible properties, such as oil, metals, and agriculture. Commodities and commodity-linked derivatives may be affected by overall market movements and other factors that affect the value of a particular industry or commodity, such as weather, disease, embargoes or political or regulatory developments. The value of a commodity-linked derivative is generally based on price movements of a commodity, a commodity futures contract, a commodity index or other economic variables based on the commodity markets. Derivatives use leverage, which may exaggerate a loss. The Fund is subject to the risks associated with its investments in credit, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, counterparty, debt securities, derivatives, index tracking and data, industry concentration, money market funds, management, market, operational, regulatory, repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements, subsidiary risks and U.S. government securities.. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation, liquidity, interest-rate, valuation and tax risks. Gains and losses from speculative positions in derivatives may be much greater than the derivative’s cost. At any time, the risk of loss of any individual security held by the Fund could be significantly higher than 50% of the security’s value. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. The Fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© 2022 Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Van Eck Securities Corporation.
February 02, 2023
The resource transition continues to progress as financing, climate goals and consumer demand drive the shift towards a more sustainable economy.
January 19, 2023
Resource equities exhibited strong relative gains in Q4, outperforming both global equities and bonds. The most important issue for the resource equity sector may be the path to opening in China.
January 13, 2023
CMCI’s index design of monthly rebalancing back to its target weightings paid off at the end of 2022. This helped it outperform BCOM, the industry’s primary benchmark, in December.
December 21, 2022
Equinor, an international energy company, is one of the best-positioned companies to transition to a low-carbon future, in our view.