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Gold Miners ETF

Glittering in Good and Bad Times

Marketing Communication

Introducing VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF and VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF for diversified exposure to leading gold and silver mining companies. Investors can strategically choose between more mature industry giants and dynamic junior companies in the gold sector, tailoring their portfolios to align with individual risk preferences. Investing in gold-miners stocks, as the global economy experiences uncertainties, can provide investors indirect exposure to the price of physical gold, as the value of these companies is partially tied to fluctuations in the gold market. Whether safeguarding against inflation or seeking growth, VanEck's ETFs products offer a strategic gateway to the world of precious metals, empowering investors in navigating the evolving financial landscape.

What are Gold Miners ETFs?

At VanEck we empower investors with the choice of investing in either mature or junior gold mining companies. Each type of miners comes with its unique features and properties, providing a comprehensive exposure to the gold mining sector. Mature and larger companies operate well-established projects and have been generating consistent cash flows over time, often distributing profits to investors in the form of dividends. Junior miners instead offer a more speculative approach, being mostly involved in the exploration and discovery phases of new mines. Accordingly, they offer a leveraged exposure to gold prices, amplifying its movements in both directions.

Why Gold Miners ETFs ?

As J.P. Morgan famously stated in his testimony before Congress in 1912, 'Gold is money. Everything else is credit.'

Throughout history, gold has been considered the “Money” of empires, and even in today’s modern fiat-based economic system, it continues to serve as a critical reserve asset for central banks worldwide, underpinning trust in the circulation of fiat currencies. By investing in gold mining companies via ETFs like the VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF and VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF, investors can gain exposure to companies involved in the gold extraction industry. While gold itself is often viewed as an asset with no direct counterparty risk, investing through ETFs introduces other considerations, such as market, operational, and counterparty risks tied to the ETF structure and the underlying mining companies. Investors should also be aware that factors such as gold price volatility, mining operational risks, and ETF liquidity can influence returns.

Store of Value

Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years – also in the last century. While inflation has eroded the value of the US dollar, the world’s reserve currency, by 96% since 1913, gold has only grown in value so far1.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, VanEck. Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

 

1Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index, Morris County Library of Historic Prices.

Gold Has Acted as a Safe Haven in the Past

Top 5 Equity Drawdowns since 1970

Note that gold miners are equities and have been significantly impacted in the past by stock market drawdowns.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator for future performance. Source: VanEck analysis, based on Bloomberg data. Data for the period 01/01/1970 - 16/04/2024. Equities are represented by the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index. Gold by the LBMA Gold Price PM USD Index.

Gold Has Acted as a Hedge for Inflation in the Past

Gold has moved in lockstep with (inverted) real rates, which reflect inflation expectations.

Gold Price vs Real Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, VanEck. Data for the period 01/01/1982 – 01/03/2024. Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

Gold has traditionally exhibited a contained correlation with other asset classes, thus enhancing its diversification function within a portfolio.


Gold Correlation with Other Asset Classes

Source: World Gold Council.

Gold represented by the LBMA Gold Price PM USD Index, US equities by the MSCI US Total Return Index, emerging markets equities by the MSCI EM Total Return Index, commodities by the Bloomberg Commodities Total Return Index, developed markets equities ex US by the MSCI World ex US Total Return Index, US bond market by the Bloomberg Barclays US Bond Aggregate, global government bonds ex US by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury ex US.

Correlation calculated on weekly returns from 28/03/2014 to 31/03/2024.

What are Gold Miners ETFs opportunities?

By allocating to this VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF and VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF investors can benefit from the gold miners’ growth potential. This stems from new explorations and gold discoveries as well as from a diversified and stable demand. According to the World Gold Council2, gold’s diverse uses in jewelry, technology, by central banks and investors allow different sectors of the gold market to rise to prominence at various points in the global economic cycle. This diversity of demand, combined with the self-balancing nature of the gold market, underpins gold’s robust qualities as an investment asset and make the gold mining industry sustainable in the long term. However, this growth potential is subject to varying market conditions.

 

2  Source: Gold Demand by sectors. World Gold Council. https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-demand/by-sector

Investing in gold mining companies through ETFs like VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF and VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF offers exposure to the gold extraction sector, which may benefit from rising gold demand. However, investors should be aware of several risks: gold price volatility, often driven by geopolitical events, may lead to significant market fluctuations. Additionally, mining companies may face unforeseen operational costs or delays, impacting their financial stability and ability to reduce debt. Furthermore, dividend payments and share buybacks could be reduced if market conditions worsen or internal financial pressures arise. Exploration activities may increase but carry the risk of financial losses if these ventures prove unsuccessful. Lastly, funding growth projects can raise debt levels, especially if gold prices fall or project timelines are extended.

Regulatory changes can increase operating costs, and concentration risk from limited diversification amplifies these challenges. Investors must weigh these risks carefully, as gold miners ETFs tend to be more volatile than direct gold price ETFs.

Demand for gold has historically been diversified and resilient. Gold is in fact used broadly in jewellery and technological devices as well as it is often held as reserve by central banks around the world. Moreover, many investors perceive gold as a safe haven and inflation hedge for their portfolios, thus seeing a clear investment rationale for the precious metal.


Gold's Diversified Demand

Source: World Gold Council, demand measured in tonnes.

Gold Miner Premium/Discount to Gold

Gold miners are currently trading at a discount relative to gold prices, despite strong balance sheets, robust cash flow generation, and disciplined capital allocation strategies. This means that the market value of these companies' stocks is lower than might be expected, given the current price of gold. In other words, even though gold prices may be high or rising, the stock prices of gold mining companies are not reflecting this increase, and they appear undervalued. Despite the companies demonstrating financial health and responsible management, the market is not assigning them the full value that their performance and gold prices would suggest. According to industry data, this positioning offers potential for upside, but investors should be aware that market volatility and economic factors could affect future performance.

Source: Scotiabank. Data as of March 2024. Premium/Discount” represented by the average of the percentage difference between the current gold price and that required by Scotiabank’s company models to attain a net asset value per share equal to each underlying companies’ current share price. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What are advantages of Gold Miners ETFs?

VanEck's Gold miners ETFs, with its two variants: VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF and VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF provide exposure to the world’s leading gold and silver mining companies, rather than holding the precious metal directly. Their stock prices return is correlated with gold prices, but they also have the following advantages.

Main Risk Factors of a Gold Miners ETF

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The securities of smaller companies may be more volatile and less liquid than the securities of large companies. Smaller companies, when compared with larger companies, may have a shorter history of operations, fewer financial resources, less competitive strength, may have a less diversified product line, may be more susceptible to market pressure and may have a smaller market for their securities.

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The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in one or more particular sectors or industries. The Fund may be subject to the risk that economic, political or other conditions that have a negative effect on the relevant sectors or industries will negatively impact the Fund's performance to a greater extent than if the Fund’s assets were invested in a wider variety of sectors or industries.

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Investments in natural resources and natural resources companies, which include companies engaged in alternatives (e.g., water and alternative energy), base and industrial metals, energy and precious metals, are very dependent on the demand for, and supply and price of, natural resources and can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries, including international political and economic developments, embargoes, tariffs, inflation, weather and natural disasters, limits on exploration, often changes in the supply and demand for natural resources and other factors.

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