VanEck logo
  • Moat Investing

    Moat Index Shifts Away from Big Tech

    Brandon Rakszawski, Senior ETF Product Manager
     

    Moat Index Outperformance Despite FAANG Underweight

    Many market commentators have been quick to focus on how FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) stocks have accounted for an outsized portion of U.S. market returns in recent years. However, the Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index through 30 June 2020 in many trailing periods including the 1-, 3-, and 5-year timeframes, despite its underweight to FAANGs.

    The Index’s underlying methodology limits its possible FAANG exposure in two ways. First, only companies with a wide economic moat rating—meaning, their competitive advantages are expected to last over 20 years, according to Morningstar—are eligible for inclusion in the index. Apple and Netflix currently carry a narrow economic moat rating, rendering them ineligible for inclusion. Morningstar’s conviction in the long-term sustainability of Apple’s and Netflix’s competitive advantages is not strong enough to warrant a wide moat rating. Both operate in rapidly changing areas of the market (consumer electronics and streaming entertainment, respectively), which makes it difficult for Morningstar’s analysts to assign a wide moat rating, despite the strength of either company’s current advantages. Second, positions within the Index’s sub-portfolios are equally weighted. In practice this limits each eligible FAANG stock to a maximum exposure of approximately 2.5% before the potential effects of market appreciation.

    Further, as we saw from the Index’s June review, valuations also have a limiting effect on FAANG exposure. Both Facebook’s and Amazon’s positions were scaled back in June as the stocks became overvalued relative to other wide moat companies in the U.S.

    Under-FAANGed, Outperformed

    Trailing Return (%) as of 30/6/2020

      3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
    Moat Index 19.34 10.49 11.78 13.48
    S&P 500 Index 20.54 7.51 10.73 10.73

    Source: Morningstar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. For fund performance current to the most recent month-end, visit vaneck.com.

    Moat Index Performance Following Down Markets

    Andrew Lane highlighted a recently published Morningstar paper that analyzed the performance of the Index following periods of market volatility. It shows that the Index has, on average, outperformed the broad U.S. stock market in the 1- and 3-year periods following months in which the S&P 500 Index posts significantly negative returns.

    What’s more, the Index has on average outperformed the market in 1- and 3-year periods following a month with any return profile. This further hammers home what we’ve discussed many times on this blog: the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index is built for the long term. It is a strategy that does not have to be timed in order to participate in its long-term potential. The Index can exploit valuation opportunities in any market to assemble a portfolio of competitively advantaged, attractively valued stocks, according to Morningstar.

    Frequently Asked Questions About Moat Investing

    We also received some great questions, many of which aligned with common questions we receive from investors and advisors. Here are a few:

    1. Is it too early to shift from tech?

    The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index is a rules-based index that leverages the economic moat ratings and valuation assessments of Morningstar’s equity research group. It uses a repeatable, systematic approach to allocate to those wide moat companies trading at attractive valuations. Therefore, sector over- and underweights are a product of relative valuations in the eligible wide moat universe as opposed to active “bets.”

    The underweight to tech stocks is not new. As you may recall, the Index was underweight tech throughout 2018 because many Morningstar analysts viewed the large, mega-cap tech companies as overvalued. This underweight proved beneficial as tech took a sharp turn lower in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the Index outperformed the market in the end of year sell-off.

    Moreover, the Index’s systematic approach allowed it to allocate to several tech company that finished the year undervalued according to Morningstar analysts. Many of those allocations drove impressive relative Index performance in 2019.

    2. How does financial leverage impact Morningstar economic moat ratings?

    A company’s debt/equity ratiois a common input to many investment strategies seeking to exploit the quality factor. It is a backward-looking metric that, along with other inputs, helps paint a picture of how financially sound a company has operated. Morningstar’s economic moat ratings are different. They assess whether a company can sustain its advantage(s) well into the future to allow for long-term profitability. It is a forward-looking assessment. 

    Financial leverage is, in fact, considered in Morningstar’s economic moat rating process. In order to obtain a favorable rating, a company must not be likely to cause material value destruction for equity shareholders. In other words, the hurdle to receive a wide moat rating is higher for companies with increased operating or financial leverage.

    3. Innovation has shortened the life of many great companies, how does that impact Morningstar’s long-term forward-looking moat rating assessment?

    It is often hard to believe that Morningstar analysts can develop such strong conviction in a company’s competitive position that they are willing to assign a rating linked to a 20+ year timeframe. Technological change impacts companies well beyond the information technology sector. Therefore, it is critical that Morningstar analysts are diligent in their moat rating assessment.

    In tech, the classic example of a highly regarded company lacking a wide moat rating is Apple (AAPL). Apple is a top holding of many active and passive investment strategies and has seen its market value increase regularly over the years. As discussed earlier, Apple operates in a difficult-to-predict market segment, consumer electronics. Therefore, the conviction necessary to assert a 20+ year advantage is lacking, resulting in one of the largest companies in the world receiving a narrow moat rating from Morningstar.

    A great example of innovation outside of tech was the unconventional energy transformation in the U.S. The development of technology to extract previously untapped oil and gas dramatically affected the commodity cost curve, which subsequently impacted the energy markets as a whole. Morningstar would admit that they wish they were quicker to reflect this innovation in their energy company ratings, but the importance of forecasting innovation or rapidly reflecting it in their research has been reinforced by trends like this one.

    VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF (MOAT) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses the price and yield performance of the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index.

    1Debt/equity ratio is used to evaluate a company’s financial leverage and is calculated by dividing a company’s total liabilities by its shareholder equity.


  • Important Disclosure

    For informational and advertising purposes only.

    This commentary originates from VanEck Investments Ltd, a UCITS Management Company under Irish law regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and VanEck Asset Management B.V., a UCITS Management Company under Dutch law regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. It is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck Investments Ltd, VanEck Asset Management B.V. and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this commentary. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the commentary’s publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. All indices mentioned are measures of common market sectors and performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

    VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of VanEck Vectors® UCITS ETFs plc., organised under the laws of Ireland, managed by VanEck Investments Ltd. VanEck Investments Ltd delegated the investment management of the Fund to Van Eck Associates Corporation, an investment manager regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange commission (SEC). Any investment decision must be made on the basis of the prospectus and the key investor information document (“KIID”), which is available at www.vaneck.com. These are available in English and certain other languages at www.vaneck.com or can be requested free of charge from VanEck Investments Ltd or from the relevant local information agent details of whom to be found on www.vaneck.com. The Fund is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland and tracks an equity index.

    Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexTM is a trade mark of Morningstar inc. and has been licensed for use for certain purposes by VanEck. VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Morningstar and Morningstar makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF.

    The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

    S&P 500® Index: consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering the leading industries of the U.S. economy. Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexTM consists of at least 40 U.S. companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages, and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.

    All performance information is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. You must read the Prospectus and KIID before investing in a fund.

    No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

    © VanEck Investments Ltd / VanEck Asset Management B.V.